International. After stalling last year, global renewable energy capacity additions will recover with double-digit growth in 2019, driven by the strong performance of solar PV, according to the International Energy Agency.
The IEA expects renewable capacity additions to grow by almost 12% this year, the fastest pace since 2015, to reach almost 200 GW, mainly thanks to solar PV and wind power. Global solar PV additions are expected to increase by more than 17%.
Last year was the first time since 2001 that growth in renewable energy capacity did not accelerate year after year, largely due to a change in Chinese government policy. This highlights the critical role of governments for the deployment of renewables and the need to avoid sudden changes in policies that can lead to strong market volatility.
Renewable capacity additions must grow by more than 300 GW on average each year between 2018 and 2030 to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, according to the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario.
"These latest numbers give us plenty of reason to celebrate: renewable electricity additions are now growing at their fastest pace in four years after a disappointing 2018," said Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA. "We are witnessing a drastic decrease in the cost of solar along with strong growth in onshore wind. And offshore wind is showing encouraging signs."
The cost of solar PV has fallen more than 80% since 2010, making the technology increasingly competitive in many countries. The IEA estimates that global additions of solar PV capacity will increase to nearly 115 GW this year, despite a slight decline in China, the world's largest market. This will be the first year that solar PV additions have exceeded 100 GW and the third consecutive year that they account for more than half of global renewable additions.
The softness in the Chinese solar PV market is offset by faster expansion in the European Union, led by Spain; a new facility boom in Vietnam as developers rush to complete projects ahead of incentive cuts; and faster growth in India and the United States. Japanese solar PV developers are also speeding up the start-up of projects to meet deadlines for higher incentives.
The pace of acceleration in the Chinese solar PV market remains the biggest uncertainty for the IEA's 2019 estimates. The transition of China's policy from feed-in tariffs to competitive auctions resulted in relatively slow PV deployment in the first half of 2019. But installations in the second half of the year are expected to accelerate with the completion of the first large-scale linked projects, auctions and the emergence of projects that rely much less on incentives to compete with other energy sources.
The rebound in renewables is also supported by higher growth in onshore wind, which is expected to rise 15% to 53 GW, the largest increase since record deployment in 2015. In the United States, project developers have accelerated deployment prior to the elimination of the federal government. Production tax credits. In China, lower reduction levels have unlocked additional growth in several provinces this year, allowing for faster expansion.
Offshore wind growth is expected to be stable at around 5 GW in 2019, led by the European Union and China.
Source: IEA.
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